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#gpc

4 posts4 participants2 posts today
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

I heard from @danneau today that Courtenay-Alberni was one of the top ridings *in the country* for Advanced Polls turnout!

Here's Elections Canada data page:

elections.ca/content.aspx?sect

Here are the top four ridings:

#1: #CPC leader #PierrePoillievre's riding
Carleton: 43,394 votes cast
#2: #GPC leader #ElizabethMay's riding
Saanich—Gulf Islands: 37,468
#3: Essex (near Windsor ON): 34,668
#4: Calgary Crowfoot: 33,743
#5: #LPC leader #MarkCarney's riding
Nepean (near Ottawa): 32,689
#6: Ottawa Centre: 32,604
#7: Courtenay-Alberni: 32,536

Tomorrow will be.... INTERESTING!! #Elxn45 #CanPoli #CdnPoli

A screenshot from the website shows their description and then first table.
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Greengordon

The Greens of Canada continue their slide into oblivion. That's too bad, because their voice is needed.

"The Leaders' Debates Commission, which is tasked with organizing the French and English debates, has removed the Green Party from federal leaders' debates for failing to meet participation requirements."

#cdnpoli #GPC #Canada

cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-d

CBCGreen Party dropped from leaders' debates for not running enough candidates | CBC NewsThe Leaders' Debates Commission, which is tasked with organizing the French and English debates, has removed the Green Party from federal leaders’ debates for failing to meet participation requirements. 
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

End of the 3rd work-week of the campaign and the last before advance voting starts!
(You can go here for info on voting before election day!
elections.ca/content2.aspx?sec)

Projections and poills are pretty static but there are some small moves.

338 project the Liberals at 196 seats (a majority), CPC at 120, Bloc at 17, NDP at 8, and -- for the first time -- the Greens holding their 2 seats.

As for actual polls below, the national polls are very static. I'm starting to wonder if there is a heartbeat in the people taking these polls. lol.

The Quebec poll is a little more interesting. The Liberals have definitely come down from on-high but remain with a giant lead in opinion which is likely the biggest reason they are also likely to win a majority.

Canada: 338canada.com/polls.htm
Quebec: 338canada.com/polls-qc.htm
#CanPoli #Poll #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #LPC #CPC #Bloc #NDP #GPC

The National polls show very little change from the start of the election with all parties keeping to their order of Liberal, CPC, NDP, Bloc and Green.
The Quebec graph is a little more interesting. The Liberal line is up over 50% in the middle of the graph a couple weeks ago, but have since come down to 40%. The Bloc and CPC are together around 25% and the NDP is consistent around 5-8%.
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

National and Quebec polls March 23 (start of #elxn45) to April 7.

I've changed the time series to only be since the Election was called on March 23 so we can see how things have changed... or not.

National: All parties remaining near where they have been since campaign start. Will anything push these numbers?

Quebec: Pretty much the same but the one thing you can say for sure is the Liberals have come off their very high highs of 50% and are now back down to Earth, but there is still a significant lead over the Bloc and CPC.

The NDP bumps around in the doldrums under 10%. The Green and PPC vote are nearly irrelevant.

These are reported at 338canada.com
They are the raw poll numbers, not seat projections.
National polls are only those rated "A" by 338canada.
Quebec are all polls.

A graph showing 6 lines, red, blue, orange, light blue, green, purple. The red and blue, Liberal and CPC, are near the top fluctuating between 40% and 45% vs 35% and 40% respectively. The orange line for the NDP is the next, around 8%. Just below is light blue Bloc party. Mostly at or above 5% but fluctuating lately. Green and Purple PPC are together near 2-3%
The kind of graph but this shows the liberal red line with a large gap as it sits around 40-50% and the Bloc and CPC crisscross each other for the length of the graph around 20-30%. The NDP is next at 5% most recently and the green and PPC are together around 2-3%
#CanPoli#CdnPoli#Polls
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

Polls up to April 6 as reported by 338 (these are the poll numbers as reported, not projections)

I'm including both the National and Quebec numbers because there is some interesting movement in the Bloc numbers nationally downward, but it is not reflected in the Quebec numbers themselves. It seems that half Quebec polls have the Bloc polling around 20% and the other around 30%. A rather huge difference.

However, there does seem to be a decline in Liberal support in Quebec over the past week.
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Polls #LPC #Bloc #NDP #CPC #GPC

National polls shows the Liberals and Conservatives keeping a steady gap between around 40 and 35% respectively. The NDP is rock steady at 8% for a few days now while the Bloc has dropped to the 2% range with the Greens and PPC.
The Quebec graph shows a large lead for the Liberals, but it may be narrowing with the Bloc (though this goes against the Bloc trend in the national polls) The CPC and NDP are fairly stable at around 20% and 10% respectively.
Continued thread
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

I had to look a little more into the Quebec specific polls to see if there were any trends there, so I recreated the same graph with Quebec polls.

It is hard to make out from the very noisy Bloc and CPC numbers but the Bloc did go below 20%. These are Liaison provincial polls which appear to be consistently the lowest for the Bloc.

There doesn't really seem to be any discernible trend for the Bloc or CPC. Both are fluctuating wildly between pollsters. But the Liberal and the NDP numbers are showing a decline and slight upward trend respectively.

I'll post these Quebec numbers with the national numbers tomorrow and going forward just to keep an eye on it.

A graph of All Quebec Polls by 338canada.com between February 1 and April 5 shows the Liberal red line goes up after the election call with a large gap between it and the blue Bloc and CPC lines. The NDP, Green and PPC are clustered at the bottom.
#Elxn45#CanPoli#CdnPoli
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

Is someting happening in Quebec?!

The Bloc have broken below the 5% (national poll) barrier twice in the latest two days of polling, which is for April 4th and 5th.

Mainstreet polls, 4% on the 4th, then 3% on the 5th.
There are also Liaison “B" grade (not included on graph) polling that pegged them at 4% in their four most recent pollings since April 2nd.

LPC/CPC still within usual bounds. NDP steady.

338canada.com/polls.htm

Polls show a marked decline in Bloc support in polls done late last week while Conservative and Liberal support risings slightly but still within the bounds
#Elxn45#CanPoli#CdnPoli
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

Looking at the latest polls on this the eve of the 3rd week… everyone is still in their band that they've been in since March 24.

But I do notice the Bloc has hit a new low of 4%.🤔

A sign of a subtle shift in seat-rich Quebec?

Note, the graph below only shows the “A rated" national polls as listed at 338canada.com.

LPC: continuing in their band, but on a short downward.
CPC: continuing in their band, but on a short upward.
NDP: fairly stable around 8%
GPC/PPC: wallowing under 5%

338canada.com/polls.htm
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Bloc #NDP #LPC #CPC #GPC

A line chart showing the parties.
Replied to Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸
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Greengordon

@chris

This is why I want the NDP holding the balance of power. Carney will shovel money at corporations, this has the slim hope it would be Crown Corporations. [If the Greens held power, for sure it would be Crown Corporations.]

"Money from Victory Bonds will be dedicated entirely to getting Canadians to work building public infrastructure like: roads, rail, housing, waterworks, ports, that we will own for generations," the party said"

#NDP#GPC
Continued thread
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

Updated for polls up to April 1.

Edit: The NDP support is definitely off the lows and is starting to impact seat predictions. We can see it in Manitoba especially. Not so much Ontario, but races in BC are also starting to become competitive where they looked like a CPC sweep.

Probably a function of the local races/candidates coming into focus plus voters crystallizing opinions on Trump and applying to their ridings.

A line chart with 6 lines of different colours titled National Polls as reported by 338canada.com red/liberal are steady near 45% blue/cpc are a little more bouncy between 35 and 40%. orange/ndp are fluctuating between 5 and 10%. light blue/bloc steady near 5%. green and purple, GPC and PPC, are together around 3%.
#TrumpTariffs#Elxn45#CanPoli
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Chris Alemany🇺🇦🇨🇦🇪🇸

I created a line chart from the data of polls tracked by 338Canada.com. I wanted to see it myself.

Nothing revelatory here but I really wanted to watch that CPC and NDP trend. This makes it easier than looking at the table.

Looks like the CPC is stuck in the 35-40% band. The LPC has reached its peak around 45% and the NDP and Bloc found their bottoms at 6% and 4% respectively.

Will the #TrumpTariffs produce a shift?

338canada.com/polls.htm
#Elxn45 #CanPoli #CPC #LPC #NDP #Bloc #GPC #PPC

A chat shows red, blue, orange, light blue, green, and purple lines. They are quite ‘noisy’ but do show general trends with red and blue toward the top above 35% and the others below 15%.
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