CA #wildfires: a warning to #NRC on #ClimateChange

January 16, 2025

"The NRC’s actions to address the risks from natural hazards do not fully consider potential climate change effects on severe nuclear accident risks. 'For example, NRC primarily uses historical data in its licensing and oversight processes rather than climate projections data,' the GAO report said.

"Beyond Nuclear has uncovered similar findings during our challenges to the NRC’s extreme relicensing process for extending reactor operating licenses, now out to the extreme of 60 to 80 years and talk of 100 years. We found that the agency’s staff believes and stubbornly insists that an #environmental review for climate change impacts (#SeaLevelRise, increasingly severe #hurricanes, extreme #flooding, etc.) on reactor safety and reliability is 'out of scope' for the license extensions hearing process.

"The GAO report points out to the NRC that wildfires, specifically, can dangerously impact US nuclear power stations operations and public safety with potential consequences that extend far beyond the initiating natural disaster. These consequences can include loss of life, large scale and indefinite population dislocation and uninsurable economic damage from the radiological
consequences:

" 'Wildfire. According to the NCA (National Climate Assessment), increased heat and drought contribute to increases in wildfire frequency, and climate change has contributed to unprecedented wildfire events in the Southwest. The NCA projects increased heatwaves, drought risk, and more frequent and larger wildfires. Wildfires pose several risks to nuclear power plants, including increasing the potential for onsite fires that could damage plant infrastructure, damaging transmission lines that deliver electricity to plants, and causing a loss of power that could require plants to shut down. Wildfires and the smoke they produce could also hinder or prevent nuclear power plant personnel and supplies from getting to a plant.'

"Loss of offsite electrical power (#LOOP) to nuclear power stations is a leading contributor to increasing the risk of a severe nuclear power accident. The availability of alternating current (AC) power is essential for safe operation and accident recovery at commercial nuclear power plants. Offsite fires destroying electrical power transmission lines to commercial reactors therefore increase the probability and severity of nuclear accidents.

"For US nuclear power plants, 100% of the electrical power supply to all reactor safety systems is initially provided through the offsite power grid. If the offsite electrical grid is disturbed or destroyed, the reactors are designed to automatically shut down or 'SCRAM'. Onsite emergency backup power generators are then expected to automatically or manually start up to provide power to designated high priority reactor safety systems needed to safely shut the reactors down and provide continuous reactor cooling, pressure monitoring, but to a diminished number of the reactors’ credited safety systems. Reliable offsite power is therefore a key factor to minimizing the probability of severe nuclear accidents.

"The GAO identifies a number of US nuclear power plant sites that are vulnerable to the possible outbreak of wildfires where they are located. 'According to our analysis of U.S. Forest Service and NRC data, about 20 percent of nuclear power plants (16 of 75) are located in areas with a high or very high potential for wildfire,' the GAO report states. 'More specifically, more than
one-third of nuclear power plants in the South (nine of 25) and West (three of eight) are located in areas with a high or very high potential for wildfire.' The GAO goes on to identify 'Of the 16 plants with high or very high potential for wildfire, 12 are operating and four are shutdown.'

"To analyze exposure to the wildfire hazard potential, the GAO used 2023 data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Wildfire Hazard Potential Map. 'High/very high' refers to plants in areas with high or very high wildfire hazard potential. Those #NuclearPower stations described by GAO as 'high / very high' exposure to wildfires and their locations are excerpted from GAO Appendix III: Nuclear Power Plant Exposure to Selected Natural Hazards.

Table 1: Potential High Exposure to “Wildfires” at Operating Nuclear Power Plants

–AZ / #SAFER, one of two mobile nuclear emergency equipment supply units in the nation, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–CA / #DiabloCanyon Units 1 & 2 nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–FL / #TurkeyPoint Units 3 & 4 nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–GA / #EdwinI. Hatch Units 1 & 2 nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–GA / $Vogtle Units Units 1, 2, 3 & 4, nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–NC / #BrunswickNPP Units 1 & 2 nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–NC / #McGuire Units 1 & 2 nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–NC / #ShearonHarris Units 1 & 2 nuclear power station, “HIGH /VERY HIGH”
–NB / #Cooper nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–SC / #Catawba Units 1 & 2 nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–SC / #HBRobinson Units 1 & 2 nuclear power station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”
–WA / #ColumbiaNuclearPower station, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”

Table 2: Potential High Exposure to “Wildfires” at Shutdown Nuclear Power Plants

–CA / #SanOnofre Units 1 & 2, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”

–FL / #CrystalRiver, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”

–NJ / #OysterCreek, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”

–NY / #IndianPoint Units 1, 2 & 3, “HIGH / VERY HIGH”

"Wildfires can transport radioactive contamination from nuclear facilities

"A historical review of wildfires that occur around nuclear facilities (research, military and commercial power) identifies that these events are also a very effective transport mechanism of radioactivity previously generated at these sites and subsequently released into the environment by accident, spills and leaks, and careless dumping. The radioactivity is resuspended by wildfires that occur years, even decades later. The fires carry the radioactivity on smoke particles downwind, thus expanding the zone of contamination further and further with each succeeding fire. The dispersed radionuclides can have very long half-lives meaning they remain biologically hazardous in the environment for decades, centuries and longer."

cc: @Cyclist @stfn @collectifission

Read more:
https://beyondnuclear.org/ca-wildfires-are-a-warning-to-nrc-on-climate-change/

HT @btschumy
And this is why we need to #RethinkNotRestart and #ShutDownAllNuclearPlants -- especially the aging ones! This article outlines a very possible #Doomsday scenario -- but it could be a number of things, including a large #SolarFlare...

2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great #Nuclear Collapse

A timeline of the #EndGame for human civilization

"Humanity has constructed a doomsday Deadman switch that threatens civilization. Climate destruction will make it increasingly difficult to avoid the looming global nuclear catastrophe we've created.

"Here's how our future might unravel:
Late 2020s: Climate Red Alert and Infrastructure Strain

"By the late 2020s, Earth’s climate is in unprecedented turmoil. Global average temperatures are consistently 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Each year brings record-breaking heatwaves, “freak” floods, and droughts that batter infrastructure. Coastal cities flood more frequently, roads buckle in extreme heat, and power grids strain under surging demand for cooling.

"This cascade of climate disasters sets the stage for a systemic collapse: as societies grapple with runaway warming, the resilience of #Criticalnfrastructure (power, water, transit) erodes.

"Energy systems enter a crisis even before 2030. Nuclear power, which in 2025 still provided about 9% of the world’s electricity from ~440 reactors, becomes increasingly unreliable. Many nuclear plants struggle with climate stresses: cooling water sources heat up in summer, forcing reactors to reduce output or shut down to avoid unsafe temperatures. For example, a 2028 European #heatwave pushes river and sea temperatures above 25 °C, triggering emergency shutdowns at multiple reactors that cannot be cooled effectively.

"At the same time, stronger storms and floods threaten reactor safety. Dozens of reactors worldwide are unprepared for #ExtremeFlooding, meaning a dam failure or #StormSurge could lead to a Fukushima-scale accident. Worrisome reports emerge of power plants in #floodplains and #coasts where defenses are overtopped by #RisingSeas and torrential rains.

"By 2029, global carbon output remains high, and natural feedback loops are kicking in. In the Arctic, permafrost thaws and releases methane creating a vicious warming cycle where initial warming triggers more emissions, leading to even more warming. Scientists caution that a tipping point is near, beyond which climate change becomes self-perpetuating (a true “runaway” scenario).

"Society approaches 2030 in a precarious state: aware of looming catastrophe yet unprepared for its speed. The stage is set for the coming collapse, with power grids and nuclear facilities - the backbone of the industrial world - already under severe strain.

Early 2030s: Blackouts and the First Reactor Crises

"2030 marks the breaking point.

"A confluence of climate catastrophes collapses power grids across multiple continents. A severe global heatwave in the summer of 2030 brings record electricity demand while many power plants (nuclear and coal alike) are derated or offline due to overheating coolant water.

"Then powerful Category 5 storms strike in succession: one hurricane inundates the U.S. Eastern seaboard, while an unprecedented typhoon swamps Southeast Asia. These #disasters knock out transmission lines and flood key substations, leading to prolonged blackouts in dozens of major cities. Emergency systems are overwhelmed. With communications down and transportation paralyzed, manpower shortages become acute - many operators and engineers cannot reach their stations.

"Nuclear power plants are among the first to feel the emergency. Grid failure triggers automatic reactor SCRAMs (rapid shutdowns) at plants from Florida to France. Control rods halt the fission reactions, but decay heat in reactor cores still needs cooling for days to prevent meltdown.

"Normally, backup diesel generators would power the cooling pumps, but the scale of the #blackout means diesel resupply is uncertain and some generators fail in flooded facilities. In a grim reflection of 2011’s Fukushima disaster, several coastal reactors lose all power as storm surges drown their backup generators.

"Within hours to days, the first meltdowns occur.

"In 2031, a reactor in South Asia becomes a flashpoint: its cooling pumps falter after the grid collapse, leading the core to overheat. The reactor’s heart melts through containment in a matter of days, releasing a plume of radioactive steam and debris.

"Nearby, an even greater danger unfolds: the plant’s spent fuel pool, packed with years of highly radioactive spent rods, boils dry without cooling. Exposed to air, the zirconium cladding of the fuel ignites, triggering a fire that belches long-lived radioisotopes directly into the atmosphere. This nightmare scenario - once narrowly avoided at #Fukushima by heroic ad-hoc measures - now plays out in full."

Read more:
https://www.collapse2050.com/2030-doomsday-scenario-the-great-nuclear-collapse/