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Dr. Lucky Tran :verified:

New studies suggest COVID variants may cause more severe disease.

Important caveat these are from studies on cells in a lab so we need to see if these observations translate in the real world.

The key takeaway is to not assume variants are becoming weaker. Evolution doesn’t work like that. It’s important to not be complacent and take precautions during this surge.

fortune.com/well/2024/01/08/co

Fortune · New, highly mutated COVID variants ‘Pirola’ BA.2.86 and JN.1 may cause more severe disease, new studies suggestBy Erin Prater

@luckytran This is something Christian Drosten always said (in his German podcast), that variants tend to get less severe over time. And I never understood why he was so sure about that.

@luckytran
I’d argue that it is true that pathogens get less nasty over time but:
- over time often means multiple generations of the target host, and
- in part, it’s because the most susceptible hosts have fewer/no offspring

A pathogen that kills its host before it can spread to new hosts will die off quite quickly, but that doesn’t apply here.

@levampyre

@luckytran

so how does that Molnupiravir (Lagevrio) look? It creates rapid variants, which they said was to 'break down and weaken the virus as a treatment' but it's like playing lotto to me. Way too random. Sure you might win once in a while, but more often you are going to lose, and when you do, you lose big by spreading worse. They are being reckless for profit.
How do they know these variants aren't resulting from this drug use?

nature.com/articles/s41586-023

newscientist.com/article/23937

NatureA molnupiravir-associated mutational signature in global SARS-CoV-2 genomes - NatureA specific class of long phylogenetic branches, distinguished by a high proportion of G-to-A and C-to-T mutations, are almost exclusively found in sequences from 2022, after molnupiravir treatment was introduced, indicating that molnupiravir treatment can give rise to viable mutagenized viruses.