Med-Mastodon

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> reasoning models may seem to reason reflectively when they say things like, "Let me rethink that".But do these "reflective" phrases predict better reasoning performance?Not in <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/Deepseek" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Deepseek</a> R1 Zero: <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.20783" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2503.20783</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/cogSci" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cogSci</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/processTracing" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#processTracing</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.Jon Baron shared Peter Wakker's annotated bibliography of <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionTheory" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionTheory</a>> 9000 entries!DocX <a href="http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.docx" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.docx</a>PDF <a href="http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">http://personal.eur.nl/wakker/refs/webrfrncs.pdf</a>BibTeX (no annotations, I merged redundancies) <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vbkki82h62ydq0fol1g8d/Decision-Theory.bib?rlkey=84m8zx3tyaa4uy6p0zptkybnx&st=qx9myebb&dl=0" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vbkki82h62ydq0fol1g8d/Decision-Theory.bib?rlkey=84m8zx3tyaa4uy6p0zptkybnx&st=qx9myebb&dl=0</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/cogSci" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cogSci</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/epistemology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#epistemology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/philSci" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#philSci</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/library" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#library</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.🤔 Not what I expected!More people preferred high diagnostic uncertainty than low, even though the higher uncertainty caused more worry.Within- and between-subject, quant and qual results: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1136/jme-2024-109932" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1136/jme-2024-109932</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/medicine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#medicine</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/probability" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#probability</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/bioethics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#bioethics</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/openAccess" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#openAccess</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/Microsoft" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Microsoft</a>'s viral paper about *correlations* between <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> use and <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/criticalThinking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#criticalThinking</a> also has "impact" in the title (despite admitting "Our analysis does not establish <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/causation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#causation</a>"). 🤦‍♂️<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/Confidence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Confidence</a> in <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/GenAI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#GenAI</a> predicted LESS critical thinking.SELF-confidence predicted MORE critical thinking.PREDICTED ≠ CAUSED<a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/the-impact-of-generative-ai-on-critical-thinking-self-reported-reductions-in-cognitive-effort-and-confidence-effects-from-a-survey-of-knowledge-workers/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/publication/the-impact-of-generative-ai-on-critical-thinking-self-reported-reductions-in-cognitive-effort-and-confidence-effects-from-a-survey-of-knowledge-workers/</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/computerScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#computerScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/LLMs" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LLMs</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/work" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#work</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/surveyResearch" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#surveyResearch</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/management" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#management</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/logic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#logic</a>

Different ThanTL;DR: I think a specific kind of "backward" reasoning, common in conservative religious traditions in the US, is one of the things driving the current crisis.Long version:.......First, my experience is with the LDS church, which has spent a few decades trying to be Evangelical enough to be buddies with the actual Evangelicals, and my experiences so far suggest that LDS church members have a lot in common with Evangelical Christians at this point in time, in regards to the issues in this <a href="https://xkcd.com/37/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">long-ass</a> post.I was <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/LDS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LDS</a> (i.e., <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/Mormon" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Mormon</a>) for the first mumblenumbermumble decades of my life. I was taught--expicitly, not by the also-ubiquitous methods of "read-between-the-lines", "pay attention to consequences instead of words," etc.--that the right and proper way to <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/reason" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#reason</a> about all things religious was thus:<ol><li>Find out what is true</li><li>Use all resources after that to support, justify, explain, and believe that truth</li></ol>The first point is a problem, of course, because it comes before any external evidence. There is <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/evidence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#evidence</a> of a kind, but it is 100% subjective: the results of your <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/spiritual" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#spiritual</a> promptings or feelings or inspiration. You get these by praying really hard, thinking the right thoughts, etc. Thinking "negative" thoughts (often any kind of skepticism or doubt is included in this category) will drive the Holy Spirit away and he won't be able to tell you how true all the stuff is. There are many people--and I truly believe they are almost all sincere and well-meaning--to help you navigate this difficult process. This means to help you come to the right conclusions (i.e., that Jesus is God and died for our sins, that Joseph Smith was His prophet, that the LDS church is the only true <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/church" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#church</a> etc.). Coming to the "wrong" conclusions means you aren't doing it right, hard enough, humbly enough, etc. so you will keep at it, encouraged by family, friends, and leaders, until you get the "right" answer.See, you make up your mind about the truth of things before acquiring any outside <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/evidence" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#evidence</a>. I was a full-time missionary in Mexico for two years; I am aware that of course evidence does get used, but not the way a scientist or other evidence-informed person would use it. We used scriptures, <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/logic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#logic</a>, personal stories, empirical data, etc. as merely one of many possible tools to bring another soul to Christ. LDS doctrine is clear on this (where its notably unclear on a huge range of other things): belief/#faith/testimony does not come from empirical evidence. It comes from the Holy Spirit, and only if you ask just right. Empirical evidence, clear reasoning, etc. are nice but they're just a garnish; they're only condiments. The main meal is promptings (i.e., feelings) from the Holy Spirit. That is where true knowledge comes from. All other <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/knowledge" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#knowledge</a> is inferior and subordinate. All of it. If the Holy Spirit tells you the moon is cheese, then by golly you now have a cheesemoon. More disturbingly, if the Holy Ghost tells you to kill your neighbors, you should presumably do that. This kind of "prepare for the worst" thinking is a lot more common in conservative Christian groups than I think some people realize.Anyway, you get these promptings. They're probably not because you're a sleep-deprived, angsty, sincere teenager who has been bathed and baked in this culture your entire life and has no concept of any outcome other than this. You get the promptings. Now you know. You know that Jesus is your Savior, that Joseph Smith was his prophet, that the LDS Church is the only true and living church on the face of the etc. etc.You don't believe; you know. So the next step is... nothing specific, really. You're done learning. That step is over. As we were reminded repeatedly as young missionaries: your job is to teach others, not to be taught by them. You go through the rest of your life with this knowledge, and you share it whenever you can. Of course, some events and facts and speech might make you doubt your hard-won knowledge. What to do?You put the knowledge first and make the <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/facts" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#facts</a> fit it. You arrange the facts you see or read or whatever so that they fit this knowledge you acquired on your knees late at night with tears in your eyes, or in Sacrament Meeting the morning after a drama-filled youth conference. If you can't make the facts fit your knowledge, you reject the facts.You seriously reject facts, and pretty casually. You might decide they aren't facts, or you might get really interested in the origin of anidea so you can discredit it, etc. Some people reject the theory of evolution. Others reject a history in in which many of the founding fathers of the USA were <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/atheist" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#atheist</a>, <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/agnostic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#agnostic</a>, or Not Very Good People. You can reject anything, really. You can reject the evidence of your eyes and ears, as the Party demands. It's kind of easy, in fact.Millions of people think like this: they explicitly reject information that does not fit the narrative they have acquired through a process that depended 100% on subjective experiences (and, afterward, is heavily dominated by "authority figures" and trusted friends who tell you what to believe this week). As a psychologist, even though <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/DecisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#DecisionScience</a> is not my area of research, I can tell you various ways in which one's <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/subjective" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#subjective</a> experience can be manipulated, especially with the support of a life-saturating religious worldview and community. Relegating facts to a supporting role (at best) means giving all kinds of biases free rein in influencing your views. Facts were one of the things that might have minimized that process. In fact, I think facts as correctives for human biases was a main motivation underlying the development of the <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/ScientificMethod" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ScientificMethod</a>. This becomes how you live your life: find out what's true, then rearrange your worldview, your attitudes, your specific beliefs, your behavior, and potentially even how you evaluate evidence to fit that knowledge. You aren't faking it, you aren't pretending; you simply believe something different. You see the world differently. I'm guessing you'd pass a lie detector test.Note that nowhere in this process is there ever what a <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/philosopher" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#philosopher</a>, a <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/scientist" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#scientist</a>, or a mathematician would call an "honest, open inquiry." That would imply uncertainty about the outcome of the inquiry. It would imply a willingness to accept unexpected answers if the evidence or reasoning led there. That's not possible because there can be only one answer: what you already know. Evidence cannot be allowed to threaten knowledge.Coincidentally, now you're a perfect member of the Trump/Musk/whoever personality cult. All you need are some trusted sources (e.g. friends, neighbors, celebrities, local church leaders) to tell you that <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/Trump" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Trump</a> is a Good <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/Christian" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Christian</a>, that <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/AOC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AOC</a> is secretly a communist, that <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/Obama" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Obama</a> was born in Africa, that Killary is literally eating babies, that a pizza parlor has a torture basement, that Zelensky is a villain and Putin a hero, etc. Literally anything. You haven't just learned how to do this; it is how your brain works, now. This is how "reasoning" happens. This is how belief and worldview and personal commitment are formed and shifted.Now you casually accept new concepts like "crisis actors", "alternative facts", the "deep state", and "feelings-based reality." You have no problem doing this. Conspiracy theories are a cakewalk; you could fully believe six impenetrable Qanon ravings before breakfast.I've seen progressives casually assume that Evangelical-type Christians are hypocrites, or lying, or "virtue signaling" as they state their support for whatever value-violating thing Trump or Musk or any national GOP figure has said or done (e.g., "Hey, I now believe that god doesn't love disabled people, after all!"). I've accused conservatives of those things things myself, though I don't actually believe that's what is happening. What we're seeing is not just hypocrisy or dishonesty. What's happening, at least with many religious people, is that a trusted leader has told them they should believe a different thing, so now they do. It's that simple. Many might even die for their new belief in the right circumstances (certain Christians are a little bit obsessed with the possibility of dying for their faith, so this isn't as high a bar as you might think).Sure, some people who flipflop overnight probably are lying or putting on an act even they don't truly believe. However, many more are simply being who they are, or who they've become by existing in this ideological/cultural system for years.Obviously, I believe this kind of reasoning is not good and makes the world a better place. I would like to reduce it or even eliminate it. It is embedded, though, with other dynamics: ingroup/outgroup tribalism, authoritarianism (boy howdy do conservative churches train you to be an authoritarian), prejudices of various kinds, and basic cognitive biases (which run rampant in such environments).It's also bound up with religious <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/AntiIntellectualism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AntiIntellectualism</a>. In the LDS church, for instance, there's a scripture that gets tossed around at election time saying that being educated is good, but only up to a point (any education that leads a person to question God's words, etc. is by definition too much" learning). As a person with a graduate degree, my last decade or so in the LDS church was marked by a more or less constant social tension from the possibility that I might "know too much". Education reliably reduces this problematic kind of thinking/believing system in many people. Specifically, "liberal arts" education (which isn't about liberalism or necessarily arts) is the special sauce; the classes many students will be forced to take for "general education" at most US universities are pretty good at teaching students different ways of thinking and helping them try on alternative worldviews. Many of the people learning multiple worldviews and getting some tools for reasoning and evidence, etc. tend to use them for the rest of their lives. Even truly exploring one or two wrong alternative worldviews or thinking patterns tends to yield big rewards over time. Notably, the GOP's attacks on higher ed have become much worse, recently.Anyway, this is (IMO) what progressives are up against in the USA. It is not just that some people believe different things; it's that many of those people have entirely different cognitive/emotional/social structures and processes for how belief happens and what it means. Undoing this will take generations. In the meantime, I encourage pushing back on conservative flip-flops. No matter what, not even Evangelical congressmen want to look inconsistent. Even the evangelicalest of Christians will sometimes engage with facts and reasoning to some degree, and pressure simply works, sometimes. Keep your expectations for personal change low, however. <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/religion" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#religion</a> <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/uspol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#uspol</a> <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/politics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#politics</a> <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/thinking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#thinking</a> <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/epistemology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#epistemology</a> <a href="https://infosec.exchange/tags/philosophy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#philosophy</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.What medical problem statement features help or hinder <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/chatGPT" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#chatGPT</a>'s <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/diagnosis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#diagnosis</a> accuracy?- more comorbidities and historical items hurt differentials - more examination items and use of 3-part statement format helped<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmathb.2024.101230" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmathb.2024.101230</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/medicine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#medicine</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/HCI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HCI</a>

AaronA former colleague and old friend just got laid off. She has an MS in ITDS (information technology and decision science) and a ton of experience with SQL, and is a very reliable and consistent worker. She's also comfortable with Python and C#. Please let me know of any opportunities you may know of in that area, and I'll pass it along!<a href="https://techhub.social/tags/ITDS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ITDS</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/InformationTechnology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#InformationTechnology</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/DecisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#DecisionScience</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/SQL" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SQL</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/Python" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Python</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/CSharp" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CSharp</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/FediHire" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#FediHire</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/FediHired" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#FediHired</a>

Redish Lab<a href="https://sfba.social/@knutson_brain" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@knutson_brain</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/@Andrewpapale" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Andrewpapale</a> <a href="https://neuromatch.social/@tdverstynen" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@tdverstynen</a> 3/3 But it may also be time to incorporate <a href="https://neuromatch.social/tags/sociology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#sociology</a> studies of world-understanding and news gathering into decision theory practical consequences.To my knowledge there isn't a strong connection between people studying these consequences of <a href="https://neuromatch.social/tags/propaganda" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#propaganda</a> and <a href="https://neuromatch.social/tags/news" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#news</a> eco-systems with modern theories of <a href="https://neuromatch.social/tags/DecisionMaking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#DecisionMaking</a> and <a href="https://neuromatch.social/tags/DecisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#DecisionScience</a>.But if anyone is interested, please reach out to me. It is something I'm very interested in pursuing. <a href="https://neuromatch.social/tags/ChangingHowWeChoose" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ChangingHowWeChoose</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.Excited to share YEARS of research about how to get people to think reflectively and how reflection impacts philosophical judgments at the 2025 <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/APA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#APA</a> in <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/NewYorkCity" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#NewYorkCity</a> (January 8 to 11): <a href="https://www.apaonline.org/mpage/2025eastern" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.apaonline.org/mpage/2025eastern</a> Can't make it? - More about my talk: <a href="https://researchgate.net/publication/370132037" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://researchgate.net/publication/370132037</a> - More about my poster: <a href="https://researchgate.net/publication/371248872" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://researchgate.net/publication/371248872</a>Thanks to the <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/APA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#APA</a>, James Beebe, and the Experimental Philosophy Society for the opportunity!<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/philosophy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#philosophy</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/xPhi" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#xPhi</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/epistemology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#epistemology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/bioethics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#bioethics</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/cognitiveScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cognitiveScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/mTurk" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#mTurk</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/Prolific" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Prolific</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/UniversityParticipants" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#UniversityParticipants</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/surveyMethods" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#surveyMethods</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/DualProcessTheory" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#DualProcessTheory</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.ICYMI: a large language model was better at diagnosis than doctors? 🧐...and letting the doctors use the large language model didn't improve doctor's diagnoses?! 😬 <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/OpenAccess" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#OpenAccess</a> article in <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/JAMA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#JAMA</a>: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.40969" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.40969</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/medicine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#medicine</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/LLM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LLM</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/edu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#edu</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/HCI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HCI</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/UX" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#UX</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/logic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#logic</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/criticalThinking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#criticalThinking</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/computerScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#computerScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/epistemology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#epistemology</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.A <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/health" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#health</a> literacy intervention reduced the perceived accuracy of inaccurate <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/cancer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cancer</a> headlines ...as well as *accurate* headlines.Cheers to the authors and the journal for publishing this less-than-encouraging result: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/abm/kaae054" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1093/abm/kaae054</a>Looks like prior (rather than new) beliefs about cancer were the primary predictors of discernment about cancer headlines.<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/medicine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#medicine</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/education" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#education</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/oncology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#oncology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/journalism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#journalism</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/bioethics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#bioethics</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.Filed under <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> overhype: <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/LLMs" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LLMs</a> perform near perfectly on common reflection tests, but slightly altering the <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/math" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#math</a> caused LLMs to fail, suggesting the best models (including <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/OpenAI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#OpenAI</a>'s o1) are not great at reflective, mathematical reasoning.V1 of <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/preprint" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#preprint</a>: <a href="https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5273334/v1" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5273334/v1</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/tech" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#tech</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/edu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#edu</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/math" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#math</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/assessment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#assessment</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/teaching" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#teaching</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychometrics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychometrics</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.Turns out large language models also exhibit "groupthink", but uncertainty doesn't seem to help them mitigate it.What can you do about it? 1. Increase diversity (via Devil's Advocacy) 2. Reduce redundancies (via Distillation)Free paper via <a href="https://mastodon.online/@tomstafford" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@tomstafford</a> et al.: <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.12428" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.12428</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/LLM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LLM</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/Tech" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Tech</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/epistemology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#epistemology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/xPhi" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#xPhi</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/logic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#logic</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/CriticalThinking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CriticalThinking</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.A reflection test question "lures" test takers to select *one* particular incorrect response — not just *any* incorrect response.So these three questions yielding fewer "intuitive" responses than *other* incorrect responses may not measure reflection (Table 1): <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100995" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100995</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychometrics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychometrics</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/cogSci" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cogSci</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/assessment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#assessment</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/math" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#math</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/criticalThinking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#criticalThinking</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/logic" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#logic</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.Do <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/pilots" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#pilots</a> who think more reflectively make better decisions in the simulator?In 104 commerce pilots, reflection was more predictive of better decisions (assessed by subject experts) than FLIGHT TIME, a primary licensure metric!Only in less reflective pilots did flight time predict better decisions!<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00140139.2024.2404642" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1080/00140139.2024.2404642</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/aviation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#aviation</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/airlines" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#airlines</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/airports" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#airports</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/cogSci" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cogSci</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/licensure" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#licensure</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/edu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#edu</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/assessment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#assessment</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.What do you think was more helpful for students in terms of helping them overcome a common misunderstanding of <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/physics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#physics</a>?A. Practice B. Telling students about the common error C. No differencePre-register your expectations before reading the result.. . . . . . . . .Turns out that telling students about the common (erroneous) answer seemed more helpful than the opportunities to practice.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.020116" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevPhysEducRes.20.020116</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/teaching" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#teaching</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/edu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#edu</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/science" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#science</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/physics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#physics</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/CriticalThinking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CriticalThinking</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.Can <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> in classrooms impact students' higher-order thinking?Dibek et al. meta-analyzed 37 effects of educational AI tools on creativity, problem-solving, etc.The mean effect was g = 0.6 (95% CI [0.5–0.8], p < 0.001).But not all AI tools were equal.<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10494820.2024.2402028" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1080/10494820.2024.2402028</a><a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/higherEd" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#higherEd</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/edu" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#edu</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/assessment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#assessment</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/policy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#policy</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/tech" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#tech</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.Are reflective thinkers better <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/inflation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#inflation</a> forecasters?After detecting a better measure of inflation expectations (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13003" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.13003</a>), David Comerford found a reflection test question about interest predicted inflation <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> error over and above <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/math" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#math</a> ability (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.06.011" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.06.011</a>).<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/economics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#economics</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/assessment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#assessment</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychometrics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychometrics</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/intelligenceAnalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#intelligenceAnalysis</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/criticalThinking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#criticalThinking</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.How is <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/health" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#health</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/literacy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#literacy</a> impacted by <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/graphicDesign" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#graphicDesign</a>?Randomized control trials found that <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/dataViz" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#dataViz</a> did not reliably help, but adding "evaluative labels" like "rare" (Stage 2) as well as quantifying risk (Stage 3) helped.Open access paper: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126296" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126296</a>Data and materials were "available on request." So I requested them on ResearchGate (<a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/383786400" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/383786400</a>).<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/vaccination" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#vaccination</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/publicHealth" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#publicHealth</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/medicine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#medicine</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/communication" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#communication</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/psychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#psychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/policy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#policy</a>

Nick Byrd, Ph.D.How do we expect people to follow social norms? - Philosophers argue about it from armchairs. - Social psychologists study people's intuitions, but usually not in actual social settings. - Dawn Wang's interactive experiments on South African students offer new insight, direction.<a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/Dissertation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Dissertation</a>: <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/10468/14502" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://hdl.handle.net/10468/14502</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/philosophy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#philosophy</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/xPhi" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#xPhi</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/socialPsychology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#socialPsychology</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/behavioralEconomics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#behavioralEconomics</a> @cuizhu-dawn-wang-759a23130 <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/decisionScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#decisionScience</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/oTree" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#oTree</a> <a href="https://nerdculture.de/tags/stats" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#stats</a>

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