med-mastodon.com is one of the many independent Mastodon servers you can use to participate in the fediverse.
Medical community on Mastodon

Administered by:

Server stats:

413
active users

#ukpol

383 posts140 participants1 post today

What's that meme where there is a lots of people queuing up at the "easy answer" desk but the "hard truths" has one person.

That's my take, after reading the "reform UK" policies

ANALYSIS/COMMENTARY

Labour:

A bad set of results overshadowed by the far worse results for the Conservatives.

On the plus side they have held on to three mayors (including see off a Green challenge in the West of England), the only large council they've lost control of is County Durham (to Reform) and they've come second in the national voteshare - respectable for a mid-term government in the local elections.

On the downside they've lost seats to Reform on the right and to the Lib Dems/Greens on the left, they lost the Runcorn westminster by-election to Reform, have come 4th in council seats, and have seen strong Labour cities in southern England (Exeter, Cambridgeshire, Canterbury) experience major losses to Lib Dems/Greens.

And these elections were conducted largely outside Labour territory - had they been in Labour territory then these results could well have been a lot worse.

ANALYSIS/COMMENTARY

Reform UK:

Have done exceedingly well. Came top in the projected national vote share (30%) and have essentially supplanted the Conservatives across the bits of rural England which were up for election this time.

They've gained two regional mayors, came close seconds in other mayoral races, and are now in outright control of TEN councils.

If you wanted to find a fly in the ointment it's that they've proven far better at winning Conservative seats than at taking seats from Labour, but they'll still be pleased with their significant gains from Labour.

ANALYSIS/COMMENTARY

The Conservatives:

Have lost control of every council they were defending, have finished fourth in the projected national vote share and have lost more council seats than their own expectation management 'disaster' scenario.

The only silver lining was managing to gain the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough regional mayor from Labour on a very split voteshare.

They've lost masses of seats to Lib Dems/Greens in middle class 'blue wall' type seats and have lost many masses of socially conservative seats to Reform. They don't appear to have any safe heartlands left.

#ukpol I know we all knew this but now we KNOW this: the annihilation of the Tories at the general election was not only a verdict on all their objective shitness but was also a huge number of people clearly believing they weren't cruel, hateful, and mad ENOUGH for them.

ANALYSIS/COMMENTARY

The Lib Dems:

Have taken control of 3 county councils, more than they've ever managed before. Won more seats than Labour and the Conservatives (nearly as many as both of them combined in fact). Now control more councils than the Conservatives.

Beat Labour in the national vote share for the first time since 2009 and the Conservatives in the national vote share for the first time ever.

They also posted a strong second place in the Hull & East Yorks mayoral election and are likely to lead three or four additional councils in minority/coalition administrations.

ANALYSIS/COMMENTARY

The Greens:

Slightly better than doubling their number of council seats from last time, national equivalent vote share of 11% (significantly better than they polled at the GE).

According to Sir John Curtice, polling expert to the BBC, this means they are "treading water".

Colour me sceptical when it comes to that particular piece of spin.