11:40 PM ET Update on the #Michigan #primary #Biden / #Trump side by side comparison.
there’s still a smaller percentage of Democratic votes counted, & Biden is still beating Trump, even w/ the #uncommitted #ProtestVote.
Biden has 80.7% of the Democratic vote; 343,923 votes; & 46.11% of the vote counted.
Trump has 67.4% of the Republican vote; 462,868 votes; & 56.19% of the vote counted.
#VoteBlue #Biden2024 #SwingState
Update on the #Michigan #primary #Biden / #Trump side by side comparison.
there’s still a smaller percentage of Democratic votes counted, & Biden is still beating Trump, even w/ the #uncommitted #ProtestVote.
Biden has 80% of the Democratic vote; 174,949 votes; & 23.67% of the vote counted.
Trump has 66.6% of the Republican vote; 218,416 votes; & 29.88% of the vote counted.
#VoteBlue #Biden2024 #SwingState
This is the #Michigan #primary data I’m looking at:
The #Biden / #Trump side by side comparison.
So far, with a smaller percentage of Democratic votes counted, Biden is beating Trump, even w/ the #uncommitted #ProtestVote.
Biden has 89,813 votes w/ 12.38% of the vote counted.
Trump has 89,708 votes w/ 12.61% of the vote counted.
Assume conservatively that in the general election Biden gets at least 50% of those uncommitted votes.
#Biden opens w/huge lead in #DemocraticPrimary in early results
#POTUS Joe Biden was leading #Michigan's Democratic presidential primary contest Tues, as expected, w/the #ProtestVote against him pulling about 7% of the tally.
Biden had 88% of the vote, followed by 7% #uncommitted, 2% for Minnesota US Rep Dean Phillips & 2.4% for self-help guru Marianne Williamson, with 3% of precincts reporting.
Fact 5: Support for #Brexit collapsed quickly after the #EUReferendum.
The protest vote that drove #Brexit (which is the vote that matters) collapsed in a very predictable fashion almost immediately after the #EUReferendum
I wrote a paper about this: Who is NOT voting for #Brexit anymore...
The biggest declines in #Brexit support were coming from the places where the #ProtestVote was highest... not surprisingly.
Here is a short write up
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-the-uk-having-a-rethink-on-brexit/
Now there is this interesting group of #Leave voters who disproportionately express #Regret #Bregret among those who did not expect #Leave to win (i.e. those that thought chances of Leave victory were low).
My interpretation is that these are basically people who thought "their vote doesnt matter" but "wanted to send a message".
Some would call this a good definition of a #protestvote.
If this group had not voted or not "protested", #Remain would have won.
Its the "ridiculous" #Brexit.
@MarkAsser Parties, of whatever flavour, are all so very bloody disappointing. Labor is a beacon of disappointment these days. I've always voted for progressive independents, and I've been voting for 50 years. #protestvote
#Brexit is and has always been a #ProtestVote...
Thats why public support for it is collapsing.
The demographic that swung the vote -- protest voters -- were never ideologically married to the idea of Brexit.
But of course, a lot of noise was out there over the past years that have tried to convince folks of another narrative...
But eventually the evidence and data will break through the distracting narratives...
Freedom of movement #FOM
Allegedly the stumbling block and something that #KeirStarmer is also still quite unsure of. It is a freedom that goes both ways.
Now, in 2018, even in the strongest #Leave supporting areas, support for Freedom of Movement was well above 70%, on average.
This suggests that FoM was not as much of a controversial issue across the Leave/Remain spectrum.
And that is not surprising, because many #Leave voters were #ProtestVote's.