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#atmosphericrivers

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A few weeks ago... Expect #BombCyclones and #AtmosphericRivers to become a common and unpredictable occurrence with #ClimateChange!

Europe's weekend #BombCyclone to rival B.C.’s intense storms

Dennis Mersereau
Fri, November 22, 2024

"Canada has been no stranger to weather bombs this season. British Columbia is in the midst of its second bomb cyclone in one week—another intense storm hitting the same areas affected by hundreds of thousands of power outages just days earlier.

"While B.C.’s second storm won’t grow as strong as the first, another storm out in the Atlantic Ocean could rival that first storm’s monstrous strength.

"Storm Bert is brewing in the northern Atlantic Ocean, and it’s got its eyes set on the British Isles heading into this weekend.

"The storm’s minimum central pressure is expected to drop a whopping 40-50+ mb in just 24 hours. This swift strengthening would more than double the criteria needed for bombogenesis, the process of rapid intensification that creates a bomb cyclone."

yahoo.com/news/europes-weekend

Yahoo News · Europe's weekend bomb cyclone to rival B.C.’s intense stormsBy Dennis Mersereau

"#AtmosphericRivers – long, narrow bands of water vapor in the sky that bring heavy rain and storms – are shifting toward higher latitudes, and that’s changing weather patterns around the world.

One main reason for this shift is changes in sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.

Global warming is expected to increase the overall frequency and intensity of atmospheric rivers because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture."

theconversation.com/atmospheri

The ConversationAtmospheric rivers are shifting poleward, reshaping global weather patternsThese powerful ‘rivers in the sky’ provide a huge share of annual precipitation in many regions, including California. They can also melt sea ice, with global climate implications.
Continued thread

#AtmosphericRiver #ClimateChange

Okay… so first up, the experiment design… we looked at Present Day (you can see that in my paper / posts above), and then I used some old GISS simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (21000 years ago-- COLD) and projections (year 2095 using RCP8.5) ... then did simplified + and - 3degC for thoroughness…

And then we begin the process of doing the high temporal resolution simulations to look at past/future #AtmosphericRivers

Finally my paper looking at #AtmosphericRivers is out!

"How River-like ARE Atmospheric Rivers?”

VERY-- they take moisture from 1000's km and 10deg equatorward than your average storm.

#NASA #CYGNSS - GPS array that looks at how choppy the ocean surface is to determine surface wind speed and heat fluxes compares well w simulations from the #NASAGISS climate model w include a tracer suite that identifies where moisture in the atmosphere originally evaporated from.

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co

Replied in thread

Respectfully (block me if you like), but it is folly to promote the notion that CA (and the West at large) are out of #drought because of massive rainfalls from numerous #AtmosphericRivers. What happens to #BehavioralChange, #WaterConservation and further #runoff/#Aquifer development when you do this? You are simply giving a #GreenLight for #BAU. #BlackSwans are not a solution for multi-decade problems. #ScienceNotSilence. . @petergleick @InfoMgmtExec