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Dr. Lucky Tran :verified:

We are in the midst of a big COVID surge, caused by a new variant. This is a helpful chart on holiday COVID risk put together by Dr. Michael Hoerger, based on current COVID wastewater levels & modeling.

For a Christmas gathering of 10 people, there's a 30% chance at least one person is infectious.

Chart: In the U.S., What's the COVID Risk for Christmas Day? Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 3.4% 2 6.7% 3 9.9% 4 13.0% 5 16.0% 6 18.9% 7 21.7% 8 24.4% 9 27.0% 10 29.5% 15 40.8% 20 50.3% 25 58.2% 30 64.9% 35 70.5% 40 75.3% 50 82.6% 75 92.7% 100 97.0% 150 99.5% 200 99.9% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
Dec 20, 2023, 04:40 PM·Public·Web
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