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Carolyn Barber, MD

❄️ The winter surge is coming! ❄️
R/T from Michael Hoerger, PhD

Today:
🔹886,000 daily cases
🔹1 in 54 infectious (1.9%)

In 4 weeks (Christmas Day):
🔹1.5 million daily cases
🔹1 in 32 infectious (3.1%)

“1. For Nov 27, what is the COVID risk in the office, a classroom, or at a social gathering? 1/3

Bad.

10 people (daycare, team meeting) = 17% chance someone is infectious

30 people (classroom) = 43% chance

50 people (lecture, restaurant) = 61% chance

2/3

2. For Dec 25, what's the risk of COVID?

8-10 people (small gathering) = 25% chance someone is infectious

20 people (visiting two families) = 47% chance

100 people (flight, restaurant, etc.) = 96% chance

Limit gatherings, , , Test/Isolate,