Back

@LightFIAR I believe, it’s too early, the polls are still within the margin of error, & the public has not been alerted to the facts. Please watch HC Richardson’s video.

Thank you @KimPerales

@LightFIAR July numbers are not predictive: 1988, 2016 jump out as important counter examples. 2016 averages here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

Ther last successful examples of a challenge to or replacement of an incumbent resulting in victory for the incumbent's party was 1948. See 1968, 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2020 (Lincoln project) as counter examples.
#uspolitics #uspol

@ERBeckman @KimPerales Did any of those races have an incumbent consistently losing to his opponent throughout the tenure? Were any of the candidates as demented as both of these guys--or as disliked? I don't think history is as informative in this case--except Biden is likely to lose and yep, no guarantee his replacement will defeat that bastard--but they'll have a better chance than Biden who now needs to go to bed at 8. Any other such employee would retire (or be laid off).

@LightFIAR @KimPerales

Yes, this is unique; 1912 last example of two candidates who have been elected President.

This limits the usefulness of historical examples, but that does not imply that the opposite of the trend is true. 2020 is the clearest analog imo: unpopular incumbent running against politician with national experience.

Close polls are simply not predictive at this stage.

This is Biden's decision. Forcing him out makes it worse for Dems.

@ERBeckman @KimPerales Agreed it is his decision (though he is "our" employee ostensibly) and for the sake of the nation, he needs to make the right one fast. And that is to withdraw.

One other major difference is his opponent is an ex-incumbent, as it were. Someone new and capable has a better chance to keep that criminal trash out. This is a thoughtful interview:

https://www.democracynow.org/2024/7/3/james_zogby_2024_biden_replacement_options

@LightFIAR I agree that the stakes are very high and that we have a right to express what our representatives do. I'm less confident it would work, and favor putting grassroots energy (like me) elsewhere. But, I appreciate Zogby's point that Party leaders should think through how a switch might work if Biden cannot/will not continue. Thanks for sharing. #uspolitics #uspol

@LightFIAR @KimPerales

Yeah, 1912 is not an analog, because it was a 3 person race and I'm nearly certain that you're right about TR. A different time in many ways, too.

Prison sounds right.
(reposted in the thread for context)